San Diego Housing Market Has Been Steadily Improving-But Now It Is Slowing Down

Over the last 14 straight months, the San Diego Housing Market was improving. I reported so here on ActiveRain and on my Voice of San Diego Real Estate blog site with glee. So what is happening now? It would seem at first glance that the Federal Tax credit coupled along with state housing credits inspired most of the qualified buyers that were in the market to have already purchased leaving, us with a much smaller Buyer pool. And  that doesn’t look to be increasing any time soon. Could that be a real possibility after having a steady increase in the improving numbers of home prices and sales? A possible cyclical change already?

According to Data Quick reporting, more money was spent last month on housing in Southern California  in in the past 2 years. Home purchases are dropping significantly and with the historically low rates that haven’t been this low since the 1970’s, what could be going on?

We have had home price improvement for home sellers with the median price edging up 13.2 percent in the last year. The mix of homes  from distressed to equity homes sales has improved from what was in the range of over 50% to about 33% currently. Higher home priced sales  make up about 20.8% , which is up over last year , Investor and absentee buyers are currently making up about 19% of the sales. So that leaves up with 30% of the market made up of homes sales in the low priced category ( under $500K ) which is now lower than last year.

I suspect that Buyers are having a more difficult time of qualifying for the mortgages now. The requirements are getting more difficult  to qualify so it may be that many more potential buyers are not eligible to purchase.

Here is another  statistic that  might help explain some of the change we are experiencing. Over the years , typically adjustable rate mortgages make up  anywhere from 20 to 40 percent of the buyer pool at any one time. Today we are down to just a little over 6% of the mortgages  are adjustable. Jumbo loans , even though the interest rates are available under 5%, qualifying requires extra high credit scores, at least 20% down and cash reserves.

The Buyer pool is still shrinking and that could spell some serious pricing problems ahead for sellers as we see the ratio of supply and demand make these dramatic changes. This is likely to add to the number of distressed homeowners entering the inventory market in coming months. It may be early for this statement but I am thinking that the idea that the housing market is going to float all boats and help get us out of the economic downturn might have been just wishful thinking.

La Jolla Festival Of The Arts

This art show and 4th annual charity event held at the beginning of each summer is sponsored by the Torrey Pines Kiwanis Club. It is held on the east campus of the University of California San Diego. The designated grounds use many acres to accomplish the very large event. One of the finest Art Shows in all of Southern California, this art show in particular, I don’t miss. 

This is no ordinary community art show as it features Internationally known artists, book signings, Chalk art by Prominent world Class Modonnari, a Classic Car exhibit, Cuisine prepared by Restaurant Row participants, An Interactive Kids Zone, and Music Entertainment by Featured Musicians and Bands on The Carvin Entertainment Stage.

The variety of Fine Arts in different medium covers a very large area on the grounds and the numbers of artists this year was extraordinary. The sections of street painting by world class class Madonnari ( chalk artists) was simply amazing.

This year, I am featuring two artists whose wonderful artistic stylings I have come to know and really enjoy. Introducing you to Kari von Wening and Jan Bush.

This Hand Painted and Metal Sculpture, titled ” Bon Appetite” is one of the pieces that drew me in to see Kari and Jan’s work. Earlier this year, I had first come across their works as exhibited at the Little Italy show in Downtown San Diego.

It was quite evident that I wasn’t only one drawn in as their display area was crowded with art collectors. And they were the more serious collectors who regularly add to their collections. I met one middle age couple that been collecting their work for some time and were about to purchase yet another piece for their collection.

There was another violin there that I was attracted to and they asked me why I liked it. The form and design reminded me of “Carnival” in Venice. We discussed that further and they decided they wanted it in their collection. I was delighted to have been a part of the decision making process for them.

At the La Jolla Festival of the Arts show yesterday, once again I was found a piece called “Bon Appetitie”. I was talking with Kari and Jan about the Blog post I wrote of the review of the movie Julie and Julia where I used that title.

I asked Kari and Jan if I could feature this violin in this post because I really liked it. Who knows, I may start a new collection of their violins. Their work is so intriguing and is always an inspiration to me. Here is a link to their site if you would like to see more of their works. As a collection is really wonderful and each piece seems to make such a bold statement.

Here are some other photos representing other works found here at this festival. Enjoy!

While visiting the many artists exhibits I also found and spoke with many different kinds of artists, specializing in different media, including a Photographer whose work I really appreciate. He and his wife are world travelers and he originally was a newspaper Photo Journalist from San Francisco. We spoke about his vast array of works, my interests in photography and about the PhotoBlogger group I founded. His work is simply stunning and he has welcomed me to consult with him on some very creative techniques he developed.

Some of the artist categories at this show were custom jewelery design, wood workings, furniture, photography, original oil, water colors, acrylics, glass,paper, ceramics, Fiber and textiles, Sculpture, Drawing, airbrush and mixed media and Madonni.

]]> http://therealestatetextbook.com/2010/07/03/la-jolla-festival-of-the-arts-featuring-the-works-of-kari-von-wening-and-jan-bush/feed/ 0 http://therealestatetextbook.com/2010/04/01/how-to-determine-the-best-real-estate-professional-for-you/ http://therealestatetextbook.com/2010/04/01/how-to-determine-the-best-real-estate-professional-for-you/#comments Thu, 01 Apr 2010 16:20:27 +0000 William Johnson http://therealestatetextbook.com/?p=1227 How to determine the Best real estate professional for you!

Sometimes San Diego real estate buyers and sellers experience difficulty selecting the perfect Real Estate Professional to assist them with their home buying and selling experience.

Often it can be as easy as taking a test to find the perfect agent for your home buying or selling experience.

Find out who truly is the very best Real Estate Professional for YOU!

(DON’T SCROLL DOWN YET)
DO THE SIMPLE MATH BELOW, AND THEN SCROLL DOWN TO FIND THE PERFECT REAL ESTATE AGENT FOR YOU.

No Peeking!!!
It’s AMAZINGLY CRAZY how accurate this is!!

1) Pick your favorite number between 1-9
2) Multiply by 3
3) Add 3
4) Multiply by 3, again
5) You should now have a 2 or 3 digit number….
6) Add the digits together

Now, scroll down.

With that number, see who your PERFECT AGENT is from the list below:
(1) Your cousin, Vinny, who just received his real estate license this past Tuesday

(2) Bob, who rode his bicycle 7 miles to your house, because he lost his license to drive

(3) Nancy, who told you to get in, sit down, and shut up, because you were in for the ride of your life

(4) Madeline, the agent who consulted with a Ouija board to determine your home’s list price

(5) Eric, who brought his aggressive Pit Bull along for showings, because he didn’t know “who” or “what” we might encounter while viewing vacant properties

(6) Marcus, your car’s auto-mechanic, who also sells real estate on Sundays, and sometimes in the evenings

(7) Allison, who once volunteered her time at the hospital, but is into real estate as a hobby now.

(8) Ellis, who told you before you could sell your home you needed to complete the list of 78 improvements on your home. Total cost of improvements $56,000. Home value – $150,000

(9) William Johnson – Realtor for over 20 years and lives here in wonderful San Diego. Caring, experienced and the consummate professional.

(10) Oh, oh, need to cross Don’s name off this list, because we buried him last month.
See, it wasn’t that difficult to select the perfect real estate professional after all.

At the end of your successful real estate home buying or selling experience with #9, you will know how accurate this test was!

Why are you laughing???

P.S. Stop picking different numbers. Just dial (858-487-6975) and ask for William Johnson, author of the Real Estate Text Book with over 20 years of experience. Tell him you took the test, and it told you to call.

*This test is meant for entertainment purposes only! Any names used (other than my own), are either fictional, or have been changed to protect the guilty!

I think all too often, Buyers and Sellers are most often disappointed when they have no clear end picture in mind

I have had buyers tell me that they would like a 3 bedroom home with 2 car garage, it has to have at least 2 full baths and big yard. And when I ask where in San Diego they would like for me to look for that home, I get a rather large area of numerous communities that they want to consider based on some criteria of which they seem not very clear. What this tells me is that the Buyer has yet to put their desired home in the context of an actual place where such a home might exist. In particular, the budgets that are often relayed as fixed also have not correlation to the locations discussed.

We know for a fact that a home in Mission Hills, Point Loma or La Jolla that fits all the parameters of size and functionality does not have the same price tag as a home of like characteristics in San Diego Metro or in more inland communities. When the Buyers shop Mission Hills and then expect that magically the target home will somehow appear if we look hard enough or make offers low enough, when the budget dictates that we should be looking in other communities where homes typically of that market value exist.

There is a greater than a 50 % chance that this Buyer will not actually be purchasing anytime soon. The challenge of housing costs, limited by a realistic though restrictive budget is very real in any market and the limitations of budget need to be clearly drawn. The best way to be an informed buyer is spend a proper amount of time visiting various communities and understanding better the uniqueness of each area, the types of homes typically found there and the amenities of schools, shopping etc with the framework of that area. The more they see practical examples of homes they would consider in the context of the individual community and realistic budgets, the more likely they will be to actually buy a home there.

Without having the end picture in mind, a complete accurate picture, we are not likely to find the right mix of home, feature , budget and community in one package. I am a Certified Residential Specialist and with a good consultation, I can help you shape that proper end picture and then help you locate it in the right community here in San Diego. It will save you frustration and a lot of time searching. Given a large number of haystacks, in any haystack, though a needle may be there, wouldn’t it seem more useful to find the right haystack first?

My name is William Johnson and I am with RE/MAX Associates.  I would love the opportunity to work with you and help you find that just right home in just the right community.

Some consumers out there just have so much to share when they express their ideas and it can really make quite a difference, especially if the idea makes good financial sense.

The idea actually for this editorial came from the city of Berkeley California that has proposed setting up a program that would create superb possibilities and answers two of the biggest problems for consumers to be able to afford solar energy at their own homes.

Problem #1 – High initial solar panel purchasing and installation costs

Problem #2 – Recovering the cost of providing solar when selling the home

Berkeley’s proposal overcames both problems for the homeowners in one rather remarkable solution and it involves selling bonds for revenue used for purchasing of the solar systems and also a shared part of the installation costs. The homeowner only pays a shared portion of the costs for installation. The city would recover its investment and then recovers its costs with an assessment over 20 years on the property tax bills. It would end up costing the city nothing as the annualized cost of its share of the installation costs is more than offset with energy output savings.

As you can see, both problems are solved for the consumer in one “WOW” solution-and then only a shared cost for the installation and also saving more on energy costs the first year than the installation costs. So even during year one, the consumer would enjoy the energy savings while offsetting the increased property tax of paying back their share of the bond and interest costs paid by the city.

Problem two is solved as well and the solar addition to the home may actually become an asset of the property in making it more of a stand out for desirability with decidedly reduced energy costs.

I know that if San Diego were to ever set this up, I would want to be first in line to have solar . Can you even begin to imagine what it would like across the entire country if every city could do this? Talk about going green, this would be a giant leap. My belief is that if Berkeley can do this , then we should all be encouraging our own cities to consider this option. I will update this post when the city of of Berkeley ratifies this proposal expected to voted on in September of this year.

The consumer who posted this editorial and made others aware of the wonderful idea is truly an asset. With all the talk of going green and all the expense of it, this sounds like a workable plan and harkens back to the idea ” If there is a will, then there is away”.

The excitement begins this Thursday June 12th. San Diego is all dressed up and waiting the many many thousands that are descending in our wonderful community. Torrey Pines, a public course in La Jolla over looking the ocean,  will host this marvelous event and the players to watch are 2 of the worlds best players , Tiger Woods, currently ranked number one in the world  and his playing partner,  the player ranked number 2 in the world, Phil Michelson.

As play begins early Thursday morning,the 3 day event will expose San Diego to an International audience and it would surprise no one if we saw a real surge in people migrating here from all parts to take up residency here in America’s Finest City.

Looking back, 2007 has been a most unusual year. The housing market has seen a lot of correction and some real disappointments coupled with some mostly obscured indicators that the market is actually improving.

As we begin this year that will have the media being dominated by election year prognostication, there will also be many words printed about the housing market and the direction the media intends to emphasize as the year progresses. There will no doubt be further effort to undermine any efforts of recognizing this market as a glass half full. But the best investors world wide have always recognized the golden opportunities that lie at the heart of the medias effort to portray any weakness in the markets as death knells. The best usually pick up the gauntlet and run with it to find even more new riches at the expense of the weakened and weary current holders of the assets.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Facebook site with it 47 million users has really been sort of an experiment in that it no longer limits it attraction to college kids but opened itself up to anyone that was interested. There is currently no commonality in the specific traits of its users and it allows anyone to jump in, in a sort of free for all, at least as far as directing it towards one group or another.

Facebook will likely experience some real growing pains and to be sure aligning itself with Microsoft will provide some needed liquidity and actually is a stroke of genius. Not that the site itself isnt already.

To get specific here, Microsoft bought a 1.6 % stake in Facebook and Google who lost out in its bid must not have seen the same potential value as Microsoft who needs to increase its online advertising. Microsoft will sell ads that will appear when Facebook users (over 47 millions users to be exact ) uses the Windows On Line service, Microsoft Smart Phones and even the X-box online gaming site.

Microsoft in seeking to increase that ad revenue with its new base on Facebook, currently reporting about 1.8 billion a year in on-line ad revenue. Google by contrast is in the range of 13.3 Billion in ad funds revenue. But $ 240 million output from Microsoft is just seed money for the, if and when, they may be able to get a bigger share. They probably feel pretty good in beating out Google, the clear online revenue generating machine title holder.

Dont we all just love Capitalism!

This mornings headlines in Business news around the country contain his projections for the bottoming out of home prices to continue through 2008 with credit problems to remain elevated well into 2009.

Many of my ActiveRain readers compliment me for finding the positive in our markets and usually highlighting the glass half full scenario instead of the opposite viewpoint.

The stock market over the last few days is responding to the Moodys study which Mark based his forecast on.

I will give you the highlights of Marks forecast. What is interesting to me is that most of this has been heard in the press for quite some time. I think the impact is that Moodys is lending their voice to make the previous forecasts a bit more concrete. back and forth. One month things are improving, the next, the economy is projected with a lot more pain but at least he doesnt see a possible recession.

• Home prices will fall 10% from the peak, more in the regions of CA., AZ,and Washington DC.
• Home sales could bottom later this year. But it will be 2010 before the market returns to Normal
• Investors are projected to lose about 113 Billion as the 460 Billion worth of mortgages default.
• 20% of the sub-prime mortgages in 2006 will fail. it was noted that a significant number of these borrowers never made a single payment.
• 2.5 million first mortgages will default this year and next.
• US economy will grow less than 3% annualized through 2009
• Prediction that consumer spending will slow and will continue on that trend.

I did report that in yesterdays post that Wall Street packed up those sub-prime mortgages and marketed them as tradeable securities. What I didnt discuss in that post was that some of these major hedge funds are stumbling. Mark suggested that if another major hedge funds stumbles that there is a one in five chance of a Global liquidity drying up.

A one in five chance. The last time I did math, that was a 20% chance. We have had a 20% chance forecast of rain here in California for months and not a drop of rain has fallen. I suppose you shouldnt dismiss the argument completely but I sure wouldnt want to bet a $100 with a 20% chance of winning, would you?

I would report then that there is 80% chance that such a thing will not happen. Which odds do you like better? 20% or 80%.

One of the nice things thats happening for me as I discover my own voice in this blogging world is that I am beginning to get the hang of collecting data and drawing my own conclusions and not always having to believe what others and their the glass is half empty and we are likely to spill the rest of it type of scenario. I have held for a lot a years that the real estate markets go up and down but one thing is certain. There are no less people in the world and the last time I looked , God hadnt made any more land. So we all are trying to fit into tighter spaces.

People have always wanted their own piece of the land and I dont think that will change any time soon. Fluctuations in normal market cycles are to be expected and have to be persevered. If the markets only went up, a small garage would cost a million dollars soon. Better if that happens when we all make a million dollars a month income. For now, lets just park the car in the garage and not be so concerned what it is going to be worth when bread is hits $25 a loaf.

It might never happen, meanwhile I do know our lives are happening every day. We should all live them as best we can and keep out wits about us. We dont have to buy into projections just because they seem to fit the news patterns. Buying in pretty much assures a self fulfilling prophecy, doesnt it? Burying our heads in the sand doesnt help much either. Become aware !

There is yet another scenario that needs to thrown out here for discussion on another upcoming post. Is this whole housing crisis actually be shaped intentionally and not so much by accident? There has been talk for at least a few years about new tax system proposals, flat taxes, in particular where it concerns the deductibility of mortgage interest.

This same economist in an interview in 2005 with CNN felt that people might be over investing in real estate and as one of the interviewee’s noted, one way that the excessive investment in real estate might be curbed would be a restructuring of the tax code that would make it less appealing, particularly if the mortgage interest was not tax deductible any more.

This same economist for Moodys seemed to feel at that time that people have done very well buying homes and that they need to get used to the idea that things are going to change. I wonder if that Is that what we are now seeing, a sort of preparing for that type of change? Maybe in 2008 with a new administration and New Congress? Keep your eyes and ears open, there may be more to all this than we thought .

I believe there was in excess of 100 San Diego Realtors in attendance with breakfast and a lunch provided. It was an exciting morning with great presentations. I haven’t attended one of these Symposiums before  but I can tell you without reservation that the information presented was awesome.

Speaker after speaker ,the information presented was excellent and the one next one up was going to be discussing Web 2. Reese Harris of ListingCard.net the presenter for Web 2.0 then asked the question if anyone knew what the difference is between the new Web 2.0 vrs Web 1.0. No one said anything and I sure wasn’t going to say anything, I am sitting in the front row and just wanted to see what was to come next.

Then the next Power Point slide came up on the screen and the speaker, said , Web 2. provides for people to connect with each other. Through Internet communities you could interact and exchange information easily with others. He briefly described the different kinds of communities , Business to Business, Business to Consumer, etc.

He went on to describe how participating in these  Internet communities can actually drive traffic to your personal website.  These communities are Web Log ( Blogging) sites, where people can exchange ideas, comment on other people’s posts and network with each other. Consumers can come into to these sites and seek information on any topic of interest and often have exchanges with the authors.

On the next slide he listed what he thought were some really great blogging sites. The first one on his list was Sellsius. Next  on the list was ActiveRain.com. The third one was Jim Cronin’s, The Real Estate Tomato.com followed by Brian-Brady.com and finally Bloodhound.com.  At about this point I was feeling really very comfortable knowing that I knew most of these sites by already being involved with ActiveRain as a participating member.

Then Jim Cronin, owner of The Real Estate Tomato was the one I met through ActiveRain that I  contracted with to design my own blogging website.  I met Brian Brady, one of the foremost Blogging experts in the United States from San Diego at an ActiveRain event that he put on Del Mar, CA. this past month.  So I was feeling pretty good about this list and then all of a sudden I’m sitting there and he says that the author of one of the most interesting blog sites he has ever seen is here with us today. I sort of looked to the back of the room to see if Brian Brady, Roberta Murphy or Jeff Dowler from Carlsbad that I would know was here in the room.

He then said the author of TheRealEstateTextBook.com  is right here in the front row, and would I please stand up. I was totally taken back. I only met this gentleman earlier in the morning and didn’t even talk to him and had only mentioned the blog site to one of my Title representatives’ marketing partner when I saw her earlier. It turned out that the speaker, the owner of the Listing Card.net company giving the presentation on Web 2. was her husband and he was already familiar with me and had seen a number of my blogs on ActiveRain and had been directed to the new site by his wife.

He invited everyone to talk to me over the lunch break and I was to be the local expert on Blogging for the rest of the day. At every break, someone wanted to ask me questions. At the end of the day, I had them to suggest that anyone that would be  interested in joining my social network, to please drop off a business card to me and I would have Active Rain send them an invitation. I got lots of cards so I will be doing a lot of inviting tonight so they get their invitations to join.

It was great day and I am so so glad that I had the opportunity to be a part of something like this. And Many Thanks to Stewart Title for providing such a wonderful program that helps the REALTOR provide the best services for our clients.