November 21st, 2010 categories: Buying San Diego Real Estate, Investing in San Diego Real Estate, Local San Diego News You Can Use, Market and Forecast Updates For San Diego, San Diego Real Estate, San Diego Real Estate News, Selling San Diego Real Estate
San Diego Home Sales Fall 25% October 2009 through October 2010
The October San Diego Housing Market report indicates that while the median sales prices for resales have increased slightly, the number of sales last month have dropped and over the last year they have done so rather significantly.
The year over year San Diego Median Home Prices changes from October 2009 through October 2010 suggest that there have been increases across the board in Single Family and Condominium resale prices and especially in new homes sale prices. The median prices increased 2.5% ( $369,000) for Single family homes, up 2.38% ( $215,000) for condominiums and a whopping 21.12 % ($486,000) for new homes. These combined gave the county a 2.92% ( $334,500) boost to the median price of all combined types of sales.
The sales numbers year over year however show a significant drop in the number of sales in all three categories. The resale numbers for Single Family homes sold was 1659 sales county wide, a drop of 24.83% year over year while the total Condominiums resales of 822 was a drop of 24.86% year over year. New homes sales of 269 similarly dropped over 27.30% year over year. The over market change in San Diego county reflect that there was 2750 total sales in all categories for October, a drop of 25.09 % in the housing sales figures for the 12 month period of October 2009 through October 2010.
We have seem over the last year some price stability even while the number of sales are dropping. It has been speculated by others that the overall economic picture on employment and the increasing number of distressed properties may very well have a disrupting affect on the price stability gained thus far and could show up in the coming markets. While I remain optimistic, statistically at least, the current downward trend in sales continues while the prices rise slightly because we have a well balanced inventory. If the inventory expands greatly and the sales don’t improve, that will have the most marked affect causing values to decline, not so much the short sales as the experts suggest. So I am using Lenn Harley’s caveat statement, ” I am No expert” . Anyway, once demand starts to improve, that will bode well for New Home construction ( think jobs) . But the total of 269 new home sales in October was the lowest reported since 1988 and continues to be slow. This compares to 1,829 new homes sales as reported in April of 2004. We forget how much things have already changed while looking for any glimmers of hope of things getting better.
The question many homeowners ask me is what is my forecast for the coming year. My “positive spin” on that forecast is this. I don’t have any idea when we will see things really change but there is expected to be a lot of pent-up demand for homes in all categories once the market indicators show that job stability is returning and the general economic anemia is ending. Here are a few of things that might spur that to happen. Un-employment numbers dropping significantly and increased jobs in the key market centers, interest rates remaining low and a rise in overall consumer confidence. I remain guardedly optimistic that we will see some of these things beginning to show up by mid 2011.
William Johnson, Certified Residential Specialist
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